While Omicron (B1.1.529), the new variant of SARS-CoV-2 which first reported in South Africa, is spreading in alarming phase in India with each passing day. The mathematical model taken up by IIT Kanpur backed by the Indian government revealed shocking facts.
Professor Manindra Agrawal, the head of the project concluded that the third wave of COVID-19 is likely to hit India early next year between January and February 2022. The SUTRA projection model has indicated that an Omicron-fueled third wave could peak at around 2 lakh Covid infections on a daily basis between January and March. However, the study revealed that this wave would be milder than the other two with comparatively less death rate.
The team at IIT-K plotted three scenarios based on the efficacy of vaccine immunity against the new variant. The findings suggested a “mild third wave, with peak between 100-150K infections per day occurring sometime in Feb,” Prof Agrawal shared through his Twitter handle.
(1) Evidence so far suggests that there will be a mild third wave in India early next year.
(2) As observed during spread of delta, a mild lockdown (night curfew, restrictions on crowding) can bring down beta substantially. That will significantly reduce peak value.
— Manindra Agrawal (@agrawalmanindra) December 3, 2021